We are not wired for investing
Humans are a species of incredible innovation. Yet, of all the things we are brilliant at, investing isn’t one of them. Why? Well, we tend to get excited about the wrong things. We focus on what just happened instead of considering what could happen next. We’re not great at understanding math, and we despise delaying […]
Keep it Simple
We are naturally drawn to complex ideas. Maybe it’s because they sound sophisticated and smart, but when it comes to your money, simplicity beats complexity. The more complicated an investment approach is, the more error-prone it tends to be. Even the best investment strategies can be undone by a single mistake. Complex strategies often […]
Talking to Trees
I spent the week in Cape Town. I always enjoy my time there. On the drive from Knysna, the N2 passes through massive tracts of farmland as far as the eye can see, up until you see the vast mountain ranges that guard the route to the Karoo. First, the Outeniqua Mountain range as you drive […]
Consistent, Long-Term Investing
The big news in the last week from a market perspective was that the Bank of England lowered its repo rate by 0.25% to 5%. This is the first of the developed world central banks to lower their repo rate in response to declining inflation. It comes as a bit of a surprise since […]
Predicting the economy is hard
I’ve written about stock market predictions before – here and here. The central message is that the bulk of these predictions turn out to be wrong. There’s always someone forecasting doom and gloom, the next big recession, or some major shift in the Western Order. I recently came across another one of these predictions in a prominent […]
The US Election and your Portfolio
There’s been some excitement in the US with the recent replacement of President Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the new Democratic Presidential nominee. Here’s a recent news headline of Harris blasting Trump Sheesh. I certainly wouldn’t want someone in power with a vision of ‘chaos, fear, and hate.’ Here’s another headline from […]
Predicting the Next Big Crash
You may have watched the movie The Big Short starring Steve Carell as Michael Burry, who came into prominence for accurately predicting the housing bubble back in 2008. He is perhaps most famous for getting this prediction correct. Did you watch the movie? Well, Burry made subsequent predictions as well, and luckily, we can look […]
Fall of the Western Order
I was recently asked about an article that came out in the Daily Maverick on the impending doom of the Western order. A central argument is that the use of debt by Western Government, and the US in particular, is unsustainable. It made me think of this cover from Time magazine – If you […]
To Sell a House
I’m still trying to sell my apartment in Johannesburg. I have a good tenant, but that’s about all. I’ve put it on the market, taken it off, put it on again. It’s tough out there. The latest Lightstone analysis on how long it takes to sell a house in South Africa over the last 10 […]
Lose the Noise
Investors are constantly bombarded with a barrage of distractions: earnings reports, news releases, upgrades, downgrades, economic data, and geopolitical events. Just this week I’ve read wildly contradictory pieces about how markets are reacting to our GNU and the apparent deadlock between the ANC and the DA. How should we manage this firehose of information in […]
