The case for SA Fixed Income
Having sat through a number of presentations from asset managers on their strategic asset allocations for the fourth quarter of 2024, one of the standout consistencies in their research has been the case for South African bonds. The logic is as follows – South Africa has one of the highest real yields in the […]
US election: Trump vs Harris
With less than two weeks until election day in the United States, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains incredibly close. According to recent polling data from ABC News/Ipsos, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are in a statistical dead heat. Trump holds the advantage on key issues like the economy, […]
The Navigator
Anchor Capital just released their quarterly Strategy and Asset Allocation Report. I have a lot of respect for the Anchor team who together manage over R130 billion in assets. Their house view on local and offshore asset class returns over the next 12 months are summarized in the table below. It’s based on their […]
Does the US Bull Market Still Have Legs?
One question I’ve had a lot is whether the US bull market has gone on for too long. Some worry that adding new investments now is risky because the market is overdue for a correction. Others who haven’t yet invested in US equities feel like they’ve missed the boat. But if history teaches us […]
Is the GNU having an effect on the strong rand?
I took leave this week and spent it with my family in Kenton. It was wonderful being back in the Eastern Cape. Just before we left last week Friday, I received an invitation from the SABC to speak to them about the strengthening of the rand and the extent to which it is a result […]
Time in the Market
We have been expecting rates cuts for over a year now, and they have finally arrived. On September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, followed by the South African Reserve Bank’s 25 basis point cut the next day. Inflation has eased within target ranges in both countries. The […]
The Cost of Financial Neglect: Lessons from a Hermès Heir
Nicolas Puech, an heir to the Hermes fortune, made headlines recently after alleging that his vast wealth has vanished. Once a prominent shareholder in the luxury brand, Puech now claims that his billions are gone due to alleged fraud by his former wealth manager. According to Puech, he no longer possesses 6 million Hermes shares, […]
Stories from the 90s: Lessons from the Dot-Com Era
I was in Cape Town again last week. I took the scenic route back to Knysna after spending time with an old university friend in Paarl. Instead of the usual N2 drive, I went via the N1 through the Huguenot Tunnel, crossed the R60 through Robertson, and eventually rejoined the N2 near Swellendam. Pic: Just outside […]
Soft Landing or Hard Landing?
If you look around the world today, most markets are at all time highs or very close to it. The JSE is sitting close to all-time highs, just slightly off from where it was about a week ago. The US Federal Reserve is expected to follow the European Central Bank and Bank of England in […]
Predicting the economy is hard
I’ve written about stock market predictions before – here and here. The central message is that the bulk of these predictions turn out to be wrong. There’s always someone forecasting doom and gloom, the next big recession, or some major shift in the Western Order. I recently came across another one of these predictions in a prominent […]
