The JSE is up 38% this year. That’s an astounding number.
What’s interesting, though, is that, like in most markets around the world, the returns have been extremely concentrated. The resources sector, which makes up about 30% of our market, is up more than 80% year to date. The rest of the sectors have held their own too, but it’s clear that resources are leading the charge.
By contrast, the US market, measured by the S&P 500, is up only 3.8% in rand terms (around 14% in USD, but once you adjust for the rand’s recent strength, it drops to 3.8%).
The chart below illustrates
The resources sector did nothing for close to a decade — and now it’s shooting the lights out. What’s also interesting is that when resources do well, the rand tends to strengthen. That dynamic means our miners are making major profits, which ultimately flow back into the economy through higher tax revenues.
That’s good news. It supports government revenue, potentially eases future tax pressure, and gives the broader market a tailwind. If that trend continues, we could see further support for the rand and other sectors.
But the real point here is how unpredictable markets are. Nobody saw this coming.
That’s why diversification matters so much. You never know which part of the market will lead next, or when sentiment will shift. The best way to navigate this uncertainty is by thinking in probabilities rather than predictions. Nothing is certain.
Moments of uncertainty often push investors toward extremes — “all in” or “all out.” But long-term success rarely comes from either. It comes from balance, from maintaining exposure across regions and sectors, even when emotions run high.
If we can stick to the basics — looking at long-term market history and recognising recurring patterns — we build portfolios that may not always “shoot the lights out,” but will almost always be more durable in times of change.
