I’m in Cape Town this week, so keeping this one short.
I came across the tweet below on LinkedIn. It’s from Michael Burry. I see he posted it on 31 January back in 2023. –
If you don’t know who Michael Burry is or haven’t seen The Big Short, I’ve written about him before. He famously predicted the housing crash back in 2008, and ever since, the press has followed his every word.
But his track record since then hasn’t been that good. From what I can see, it goes something like this –
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
(you get the point)
People are always predicting a stock market crash. And inevitably, someone’s prediction is going to coincide with a real one. When it does, it will seem obvious in hindsight and the press will hail that person a genius.
Well, since Burry tweeted “Sell” in 2023, the S&P 500 is up 57% and has hit 71 all-time highs.
If he continues tweeting ‘sell’ twice a year for the next decade, at some point, he is going to get it right. Then I guess he will be a genius again?
But until that day, best ignore his tweets and keep invested.
Here is a picture from my run in Newlands forest –
