With less than two weeks until election day in the United States, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains incredibly close.
According to recent polling data from ABC News/Ipsos, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are in a statistical dead heat. Trump holds the advantage on key issues like the economy, inflation, and immigration, while Harris leads on issues relating to abortion and protecting democracy.

Source: ABC News/Ipsos polling
While Harris has a slight edge in most polls, the margin is not statistically significant, meaning the outcome could go either way.
It’s always interesting to see what the polls predict, but we must take them with a grain of salt. As the past few years have shown, polls have a terrible track record.
In 2016, the polls gave Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of beating Trump. And yet Trump won. And even though the polls accurately predicted Biden’s victory in 2020, they missed the mark on the margins. The national surveys of 2020 were the least accurate in 40 years, and state-level polling was the worst in two decades.
So, given this shaky history, how much weight should we give to polling?
A Different Perspective: Betting Odds
Betting on the outcome of US elections is a relatively new phenomenon, having only recently been legalized. Some argue that betting odds might be a more reliable indicator than polls because people are putting their own money on the line. The problem with polls is that they often struggle to find a truly representative sample of respondents.
But even betting odds aren’t immune to bias. For instance, supporters of a candidate may be more likely to bet on them, skewing the results. It raises the question of whether bettors are equally represented among Democrats and Republicans.
Nevertheless, current betting odds suggest a landslide for Trump. The chart below illustrates –

Source: Polymarket.com
In the final months of Biden’s presidency, the odds of a Democratic win were close to 0%. After Harris officially announced her candidacy on July 21st, following Biden’s poor debate performance, the odds began to shift in her favour.
Still, the betting markets show a 60% chance of a Trump victory.
The Big Question
So, who will win? There’s no clear answer. It’s a coin toss.
Regardless of the outcome, one thing remains constant: the markets are likely to continue their upward trajectory. As the below chart illustrates—no matter who’s in office, the markets tend to move up and to the right.

Source: Ritholtz Wealth Management